The Political Reality in Iraq›s Neighboring Countries and Its Impact on Its System of Government: Future Vision

Abstract

This research aims to provide a comprehensive framework for understanding the complex relationship between the regional environment and the Iraqi political system, and to examine the impact of the political realities of Iraq’s neighboring countries on its governance. It also offers a future perspective on how Iraq might interact with regional and international transformations. The research is based on the premise that Iraq, by virtue of its geographical location and diverse internal components, is directly affected by the political, security, and economic transformations in neighboring countries such as Iran, Turkey, and Syria. This influence extends to the stability of its internal political system and its ability to formulate independent policies. The research also seeks to analyze bilateral and multilateral relations between Iraq and these countries, and to explore potential scenarios for the evolution of the Iraqi political system in light of these transformations.
The research concludes with a number of findings, the most important of which is that Iran, after 2003, strengthened its influence in Iraq by supporting and politically unifying Shiite parties, thereby ensuring the loyalty of the Iraqi government and the continuation of its regional influence. It also reveals that Iranian interventions were aimed at securing its strategic interests and preventing Iraq from re-emerging as a potential threat, with a focus on using political, religious, and financial means to ensure control over internal political decision-making. In the Syrian context, the ongoing crisis since 2011 has directly impacted Iraq through the influx of displaced persons and armed groups, and its effect on the internal sectarian and political balance. This has prompted Baghdad to readjust its diplomatic and security positions, while maintaining a balance between its relations with Iran and the United States. Based on these findings, the research arrives at a set of academic and scientific recommendations, the most important of which are: further research into the impact of regional transformations on Iraqi domestic politics, and an analysis of the cross-border economic dimensions.