The Future of the Regional System in the Arabian Gulf Under International Polarization: An Analytical Approach to Gulf Policies Toward the US-Iranian Escalation in 2026
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Regional System, Arabian Gulf, International Polarization, Gulf Policy, Strategic Hedging
Abstract
This study investigates the accelerating geopolitical transformations taking place within the Arabian Gulf region in 2026, with a specific focus on analyzing the strategic policies of the Arab Gulf states in managing the impact of mounting international polarization and ongoing tensions between the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran. The primary objective is to deconstruct how the regional sub-system responds to systemic structural pressures from the global environment, and to evaluate the impact of these volatile dynamics on regional stability and the resilience of previous de-escalation agreements, most notably the 2023 Beijing Accord. To achieve these goals, the study adopts a descriptive-analytical and comparative research design, utilizing systems analysis and Regional Security Complex Theory as explanatory frameworks to assess the efficacy of "strategic hedging" options implemented by Gulf capitals. The study concludes that the Arabian Gulf remains a primary arena for global-regional "systemic friction." This friction has produced a highly fluid security architecture that transcends traditional bilateral arrangements, thereby necessitating the institutionalization of internally-driven cooperative security frameworks designed to safeguard vital economic and developmental assets.
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Copyright (c) 2026 Mohamed Zidan Awwad Abdelhmid Khafagy
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